Science: new prediction of sea level rise between 50cm to 1.4m by 2100

Stefan Rahmstorf, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, has published new research in Science that applies a different method to the scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the 2001 TAR, that found that in 2100 sea levels would be 0.5-1.4m above 1990 levels. This projection is much greater than the 9-88cm forecast made by the IPCC itself in the TAR.

The next assessment report from the IPCC, due in Feb 2007 will include data based on more robust modelling, thereby reducing uncertainties surrounding models on sea level rises.

The complex mechanisms at work include: thermal expansion of water through heat absorption; water entering the oceans from glaciers; and ice sheets increased ice flows after the removal of buttressing ice shelves. The main uncertainty is the response of large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to rising temperatures, which is difficult to predict.

Link